Washington Paid Family and Medical Leave premiums and solvency, 2019-2029
Premium rates for Washington's Paid Family and Medical Leave program from 2019 to 2027, what the 2027 rate costs workers at different wages, the state actuary's projection of premiums against costs at the 1.2% legal maximum through 2029, revenue and expenses since benefits began, and the trends that drove costs up.
Coverage: Premium rates 2019-2027; revenue and expenses 2020-2025; actuarial projections for calendar years 2026-2029 and fiscal years 2026-2029; wages May 2025.
Built to check the Washington Policy Center's October 2026 claims that the 2027 premium of 1.2% is triple the 2019 rate, a 6.2% increase over 2026, the legal maximum, and still not enough to keep the program solvent. Rates come from the Employment Security Department (ESD), which sets them; the solvency projection comes from ESD's Office of Actuarial Services; the cost history comes from both ESD and the Legislature's audit office (JLARC).
Geography
Washington, United States
Unit of observation
A premium year (premium-rates); a premium year and wage level (worker-premium-cost); a projected calendar year (actuarial-pricing-projection) or fiscal year (account-balance-projection); a year of program finances (revenue-expenses-history); a cost measure (cost-drivers).
Update cadence
Revise each October when ESD sets the next year's rate, and each November when the annual actuarial report is published.
Curator
FactHub Research Team
Curated data tables
These related tables form this versioned dataset release. Each
table has its own downloadable file and field definitions.
Premium rates, 2019-2027
The total Paid Leave premium as a percent of wages up to the Social Security wage base, and how it is split between employees and employers with 50 or more employees.
Share of the premium employers may withhold from employees. Empty where no source in this dataset states it.
percent of premium
observed
employer_share_pct
number
Share paid by employers with 50 or more employees. Empty where no source in this dataset states it.
percent of premium
observed
multiple_of_2019_rate
number
Rate divided by the 2019 rate of 0.40%.
ratio
derived
change_from_prior_year_pct
number
Percent change from the prior year's rate. Empty for 2019.
percent
derived
at_statutory_cap
string
yes if the rate equals the 1.20% maximum in RCW 50A.10.030.
—
derived
source_id
string
Dataset source for the rate.
—
observed
What the premium costs a worker
The annual premium on one worker's wage at points of Washington's May 2025 wage distribution under the 2027 rate, and at the median wage under the 2026 and 2019 rates, with the employee and employer (50 or more employees) shares.
BLS annual wage, Washington, all occupations, May 2025.
USD
observed
total_premium_rate_pct
number
Total premium rate applied.
percent of wages
observed
employee_share_pct
number
Employee share applied.
percent of premium
observed
total_premium
number
Total annual premium on the wage.
USD per year
derived
employee_premium
number
Most the worker can be charged.
USD per year
derived
employer_premium_50_plus
number
Employer share for an employer with 50 or more employees; smaller employers need not pay it.
USD per year
derived
Projected premiums and costs at the 1.2% cap, 2026-2029
The ESD actuary's November 2025 projection, by calendar year of leave, of premiums assessed at the projected rate and the costs of benefits, small-business grants and administration.
Unit of observation: Projected calendar (leave) year
Node.js script holding every input number with its source and computing every derived value.
Saved analyses
Paid Leave premium rate by year, 2019-2027
Question: How has the total Paid Leave premium rate changed since premiums began?
Result: The rate was 0.40% from 2019 to 2021, rose to 0.60% (2022) and 0.80% (2023), fell to 0.74% (2024), then rose to 0.92% (2025), 1.13% (2026) and 1.20% (2027), the legal maximum.
Operation: List the total premium rate by calendar year.
A rate is not a dollar amount; dollar premiums also grew with wages and employment.
Checking the tripling and the 6.2% increase
Question: Is 1.2% triple the 2019 rate, and how big is the 2027 increase?
Result: 1.20% is exactly 3.0 times 0.40%. The 2027 increase is 0.07 percentage points, or 6.2%; the 2026 increase was 22.8%. Because the employee share also rose, from 63.3% to 70.7%, the employee premium at the median wage is 3.35 times what 2019 rules would charge.
Operation: Divide the 2027 rate by the 2019 and 2026 rates; compare employee premiums at the median wage under 2027 and 2019 rules.
Scope: Rates for 2019, 2025, 2026 and 2027; May 2025 median wage.
The median-wage comparison holds wages at May 2025 levels.
What the premium costs workers, 2027
Question: How much will a Washington worker pay in Paid Leave premiums in 2027, at different wages?
Result: At the median wage ($62,990) the 2027 premium is $755.88 a year, of which the worker pays up to $534.41 (about $10 a week) and an employer with 50 or more employees $221.47. That is $25.98 more for the worker than in 2026 and $374.84 more than under 2019 rules.
Operation: Multiply May 2025 Washington wages by the premium rate and the employee and employer shares.
Scope: Six points of the May 2025 Washington wage distribution at 2027 rules, plus the median wage at 2026 and 2019 rules.
The employee share is a maximum; some employers pay it for workers.
Wages above the Social Security wage base are not charged; all wage points here are below it.
Projected premiums vs. costs at the 1.2% cap
Question: Does the ESD actuary project that a 1.2% rate covers the program's costs?
Result: Premiums cover costs in 2026 ($2,827M vs. $2,711M) and 2027 ($3,105M vs. $3,048M), then fall short: $3,237M vs. $3,477M in 2028 and $3,376M vs. $3,971M in 2029, when costs are 118% of premiums.
Operation: Compare the actuary's projected assessed premiums with benefits plus grants plus administration minus interest, by calendar year.
Projection made in November 2025 from data through June 2025, assuming claims keep growing about 10% a year.
Robustness checks
Alternative comparison:Projected account balance, fiscal years 2026-2029.
The actuary's separate cash projection by fiscal year reaches the same result: the account ends June 2029 at -$353 million and falls to -$992 million after 2029 premiums are collected.
Projected account balance, fiscal years 2026-2029
Question: What does the actuary project for the Paid Leave account balance?
Result: Year-end balances: -$26M (June 2026), $60M (2027), $12M (2028) and -$353M (June 2029). The actuary adds that the balance reaches -$992M after 2029 premiums are collected in early 2030.
Operation: Report the actuary's projected fiscal-year premium collections, payments and ending balance.
Scope: State fiscal years 2026-2029 (July to June).
A negative balance is a projection under current law; the Legislature or ESD would have to act before it occurs, so it shows the size of the gap rather than a forecast of what will happen.
Question: Have premiums kept up with benefits since benefits began?
Result: Expenses exceeded revenue in four of six years: 2021 (-$258M), 2022 (-$149M), 2024 (-$31M) and 2025 (-$158M). Expenses grew from $665M in 2020 to $2,144M in 2025.
Two sources with similar but not identical definitions are joined at 2023/2024.
The state put $200 million into the account in 2023; JLARC's 2023 revenue may include it.
What drove costs up
Question: Did costs rise because more people used the program or because each claim cost more?
Result: Both rose. Applications grew 54% from 2020 to 2023 (about 15% a year). January benefit payments grew 46% from 2023 to 2025: paid weekly claims rose 35%, and payment per weekly claim about 8% (derived from those two figures). The maximum weekly benefit, tied to wages, rose 46% from 2020 to 2024.
Operation: Compute percent changes in usage and per-claim measures reported by JLARC and the ESD actuary.
Measures cover different periods and are not a full decomposition of cost growth.
Statements on record
Exact quotes, unaltered, with what surrounded them, the primary
source, and an archived copy of it.
“The 1.2% rate is triple the program’s starting rate of 0.40% in 2019 and a 6.2% increase from last year.”
Elizabeth New, Director of Worker Rights Policy and Health Care Policy, Washington Policy Center
Washington Policy Center blog post ·
·
Assertion
Context: The sentence follows the post's statement that the Paid Family and Medical Leave payroll tax will rise to 1.2% of gross wages in 2027, with up to 70.7% withheld from workers. The post's headline calls it a 6.2% tax-rate increase.
“This new rate of 1.2% is also PFML’s current statutory cap — a cap that some lawmakers say they want to bust.”
Elizabeth New, Director of Worker Rights Policy and Health Care Policy, Washington Policy Center
Washington Policy Center blog post ·
·
Assertion
Context: It comes right after the tripling sentence. The post then says to expect discussion of raising the cap in the coming legislative session and urges repeal or benefit-side changes instead.
“Why do some leaders want workers giving even more of their wages to the program? Because even the 1.2% is not projected to keep the program solvent.”
Elizabeth New, Director of Worker Rights Policy and Health Care Policy, Washington Policy Center
Washington Policy Center blog post ·
·
Assertion
Context: The post answers its own question about why some leaders want a higher cap. It later adds that the program was not sustainable at 0.40% and is not expected to be sustainable at a rate three times as high.
“If current working assumptions about future program utilization and wage growth hold, program projections show the premium rate to vary between 0.4% and 0.6% over the coming decade.”
Washington State Employment Security Department, State agency that runs the Paid Leave program
Annual report to the Legislature, December 2020 ·
·
Prediction
Context: The report says the 2021 rate would stay at 0.4% and, in the next sentence, warns of considerable uncertainty because the program was new and its first year of benefits came during a pandemic.
Each forecast beside the value later observed by a saved
analysis. FactHub computes the error as the actual value minus
the forecast; for a range, it is zero inside the range and
otherwise measured from the nearest bound.
+0.6 percent of wages
outside the forecast range; error from the nearest bound
+100%
Washington State Employment Security Department The forecast covers a decade that is not over, so this compares it with the highest rate set so far. The rate first left the range in 2023 (0.80%).
Retrieved November 3, 2026. All rights reserved (quoted for commentary). Short quotes only; linked, not hosted.
Reliability:
Advocacy group.
Has a stake in this finding. A free-market think tank in Washington state. The author is its Director of Worker Rights Policy and Health Care Policy and calls for repealing the Paid Leave payroll tax in the same article.
Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record (Washington state document). Linked, not hosted.
Reliability:
Government.
Has a stake in this finding. ESD runs the Paid Leave program and sets the rate each October. This is its official rate announcement of October 16, 2026.
Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record (Washington state document). Linked, not hosted.
Reliability:
Government.
Has a stake in this finding. ESD's December 2020 annual report to the Legislature on the program, written in its first year of benefits.
Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record (Washington state document). Linked, not hosted.
Reliability:
Government.
The annual actuarial valuation required by RCW 50A.05.050, signed by two credentialed actuaries (FSA, FCAS) in ESD's Office of Actuarial Services. Data through June 30, 2025; published November 2025.
Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record (Washington state document). Linked, not hosted.
Reliability:
Government.
Has a stake in this finding. Slides ESD presented to a legislative committee while preparing its Paid Leave solvency report, due November 1, 2026. Labeled preliminary.
Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public record (Washington state document). Linked, not hosted.
Reliability:
Government.
The Legislature's nonpartisan audit office, independent of ESD. Its final report on the program, with a consulting actuary (Spring Consulting Group).
Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Free to redistribute with attribution to BLS.
Reliability:
Government.
Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, a federal survey of employers. Wages are straight-time gross pay and exclude overtime and nonproduction bonuses.
Limitations and reproducibility
Fully reproducible: build.js (Node.js, no dependencies) holds every input number with the source and table it comes from, and computes every derived column and saved-analysis result. No data is fetched or estimated by FactHub.
Premium rates apply to wages up to the Social Security wage base, not all wages. A worker earning above that base pays a smaller share of total pay.
The employee and employer shares apply to employers with 50 or more employees. Employers with fewer than 50 employees need not pay the employer share; their workers still pay the employee share, so less in total is collected on those wages.
The employee share is the most an employer may withhold. An employer may choose to pay some or all of it.
The split between employees and employers is shown only for years where an Employment Security Department document in the sources states it (2019, 2020, 2026, 2027).
The solvency figures are projections made in November 2025 from data through June 30, 2025. They assume claims keep growing about 10% a year; actual results will differ, and the actuary says the uncertainty grows with time.
The November 2025 projection predates a 2026 law (2SSB 5292) that replaces the rate formula with actuarial rate-setting from 2028. That law keeps the 1.2% maximum, so it cannot raise premium revenue above the projected path.
Revenue and expenses for 2020-2023 come from JLARC's state-accounting figures and for 2024-2025 from the actuary's adjusted, unaudited statements. The two use similar but not identical definitions; JLARC does not say whether its years are fiscal or calendar.
The worker cost table uses May 2025 wages for every year so that only the rate and split change. It is not a record of what any worker paid in 2019.
premium-rates.csv
text/csv · 529 bytes
