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Washington's I-001 copies Louisiana's 2014 Parents' Bill of Rights, including its records rules and abuse exception. Twelve years of court, attorney general, legislative and news records show no documented case of an abusive parent getting a child's counseling records there.
Let's Go Washington says that under I-638 a doctor will simply check a box on an existing physical form to confirm a girl's sex. For a girl with a regular doctor, that fits what the measure allows, but no current form has the box, the doctor may rely only on anatomy, genetics or testosterone, and about one in four Washington children has no personal doctor. We also check the Yes side's other claims: its pamphlet lines on medical clearance, bans and male advantage hold up; its 110,000-girls line, its account of the pediatricians' email, its attack on the 5-10 estimate and its poll do not.
Fact check: we coded 262 stories about Washington's I-638 from about 50 outlets, Sept. 2025 to Oct. 23, 2026. Of 77 mainstream news stories, 1 gave any measure of the male performance gap, 7 said a girl's own health care provider does the check, and 7 said transgender girls can still play on boys' teams, while 31 said who funds the Yes campaign. Conservative outlets showed the mirror image, and errors in the news ran both ways.
Court filings, settlements and civil-rights findings document at least four cases since 2022 in which schools or colleges disciplined, investigated or ordered students who objected to transgender athletes or locker-room access. Schools said some of that speech was harassment, and the record also shows threats aimed at a transgender student.
Fact check: As of October 23, 2026, individuals gave 81% of the $7.8 million raised by Let's Go Washington, the I-638 Yes committee; individuals other than Brian Heywood gave 52%, and Heywood 29%. Organizations gave 82% of the $4.4 million raised by No Hate in WA State: the Inatai Foundation, a 501(c)(4) with about $2.4 billion in assets, gave 23% and unions 40%; its largest individual donor gave $50,000. In 2026, the No side's reports tie about $1.08 million of spending to I-638, against $0.19 million for Yes.
Washington's I-638 lets a girl's own provider verify sex from anatomy, genetics or testosterone. Our price check finds the checkup route costs insured and Apple Health families nothing extra, while testosterone and chromosome tests carry real prices that insurers are unlikely to cover.
In the 24 states whose laws limiting girls' school teams to female students took effect from 2021-22 to 2023-24, girls' high school sports participation per 1,000 girls rose 8.6% from 2018-19 to 2025-26 and rose in 20 of them, while it held flat in states without such laws. Part of the faster gain may be catch-up from a lower start. No state has tested I-638's requirement that every girl's own provider verify her sex.
Fact check: The Yes on I-638 pamphlet says Washington currently allows males to compete against girls. It does: WIAA Rule 18.16.0 and state anti-discrimination rules let students play in the category matching their gender identity, so transgender girls, who are biologically male, may enter girls' events. The numbers are small, the U.S. Supreme Court's June 2026 ruling let states bar them without requiring it, and a federal Title IX dispute with Washington is unresolved.
The Yes on I-638 count of 269 placements, 74 firsts and 156 top-three finishes by male athletes in Washington girls' school events comes from HeCheated.org's public table, and FactHub reproduced it exactly. The entries come from ten athletes, 113 were not top-three finishes, and most were at regular-season meets.
We compared Washington's I-638 with all 28 state laws and regulations that limit girls' school sports to female students. Most go further than I-638: 25 also cover college sports and 24 let harmed students sue. But no enacted law requires what I-638 does for every girl: a health care provider's sign-off based only on anatomy, genetics or testosterone.
The Yes on I-638 argument says federal law, the Women's Tennis Association, World Athletics and the International Olympic Committee have all adopted policies protecting eligibility for the female category. The three sports bodies have, and the IOC president's quote is accurate. The federal policy comes from an executive order, agency enforcement and a 2026 Supreme Court ruling that states may limit girls' teams, not from a statute that requires it.
The Yes on I-638 rebuttal says standard pediatric care already verifies sex and transferring that record to sports is sufficient. For a girl with a regular doctor, that is largely right: the American Academy of Pediatrics' guidelines call for checking genital development at every checkup from 7 to 17, by visual inspection from 11, and the sports-physical history form the doctor keeps already records sex assigned at birth. The gaps: about one in four Washington children has no personal doctor or nurse, the measure never mentions records, and no implementing guidance exists.
I-638 never mentions birth certificates. It requires a health care provider's signed statement verifying a girl's sex, relying only on her reproductive anatomy, genetic makeup or testosterone levels, so a parent can't hand in a birth certificate instead. But 'bans' overstates it: an original birth certificate records the anatomy seen at birth, and a provider might rely on it. In Washington, the sex on a birth certificate can also be changed, which may be why the drafters left it out.
Fact check: State Auditor reports show Washington's Employment Security Department paid at least $647 million on fraudulent jobless claims in 2020, mostly to identity thieves in two weeks of May. The state has since recovered about $432.6 million, leaving roughly $214 million lost as of December 2024.
Fact check of ESSB 6346, Washington's 9.9% tax on income over $1 million: married couples share one $1 million deduction, one-time income such as an RSU vest or a 401(k) withdrawal counts in full with no averaging, capital gains can push wages over the line, and the threshold is adjusted for only about half of inflation. Home sales stay exempt and the amounts owed near the line are small.
IRS data show the total adjusted gross income reported by Washington's $1 million-plus filers fell 45% in 2001 and 34% in 2022, against a worst one-year general-fund drop of 9.6%. ESSB 6346 creates no reserve or spending cap. But the law shifts most capital gains to the existing capital gains tax, and such taxes often bring windfalls.
Department of Revenue data show the 10 largest payments made up 51% of the capital gains tax's first year. Collections then swung from $782 million to $395 million to about $1.5 billion. The swings cut both ways: the first year brought in 1.48 times the state's estimate, the next two about 16% less.
The Yes on I-645 campaign's website says Washington's unemployment 'is now tied for highest in the nation.' That was true for one month: federal data for June 2026, released July 21, showed Washington tied with California, Connecticut and Oregon for the highest state rate. But the campaign added the sentence sometime between September 11 and October 11, when the latest release ranked Washington tied for fourth (July data) or, from September 18, tied for fifth (August data). September data put it sixth.
Fact check: As of October 21, 2026, unions supplied 89% of the $12.8 million raised to defeat I-645. Four unions whose members' pay the Legislature largely funds (WEA, WFSE, SEIU 775 and SEIU 925) gave 58%. In 2027-29 pay talks, the state refused WFSE a general raise, citing a budget shortfall, and proposed a wage freeze for SEIU 775's home-care workers. The tax would send its revenue to the same general fund starting in 2029. The records show a financial stake, not a quid pro quo: union giving to legislators tracks party, not their vote on the tax.
Fact check: we coded 118 stories about I-645 from 26 outlets, June 1 to Oct. 21, 2026. Mainstream news quoted both sides about equally, but only 2 of 58 news stories said in their own voice that no current state budget relies on the millionaires tax, and 9 of 58 said its tax relief survives repeal. They also rarely reported the No side's strongest fact, and conservative outlets were more one-sided still.
Sound Transit's own counts show 39% of 2025 Link light rail boardings had no fare record, up from 14% in 2019. About 6 points of that is youth, who ride free, leaving roughly a third unpaid. The claim that most riders don't pay goes too far: the share never passed 44%.
Fact check: WA Cares takes 0.58% of all wages with no cap but pays at most $36,500 (indexed). Over a 40-year career, workers averaging more than about $157,000 pay more than that in inflation-adjusted premiums; counting what the money could earn, the line falls to about $83,000. Lower earners, near-retirees and people who need care come out ahead.
Fact check: Washington's 2023-25 general-fund budget was $17-21 billion above where 2013-15 spending would be if it had grown only with population and prices, five to nine times the $2.3-3.5 billion the millionaires tax would raise in 2027-29. But the state's budget outlook already counts on that money: repealing the tax while keeping its tax relief, as I-645 would, leaves a 2027-29 shortfall that would take a 2-5% cut, reserves or other revenue to close.
Fact check: Washington's 7% capital gains tax took effect in 2022; in 2025 lawmakers added a 2.9% surcharge on gains over $1 million, retroactive to January 1. In 2024 they adopted Initiative 2111's ban on personal income taxes; in 2026 they amended it to exempt the new 9.9% tax on income over $1 million. Both changes passed by simple majority with clauses that kept them off the ballot. The record also runs the other way: the 2025 estate-tax increase was repealed a year later, and the capital gains deduction rises with inflation.
