Estimated 2023-25 revenue from tax legislation enacted 2013-2024

What this dataset measures

Assembled to check claims about Washington's general-fund budget growth, including Sen. Chris Gildon's June 2026 statement that state spending has doubled in a decade and the Northwest Progressive Institute's May 2026 statement that the budget has gotten smaller in relative terms. The Legislative Budget Notes are the Legislature's own record of appropriations; ERFC is the official revenue record; OFM, BLS, BEA, OSPI and NASBO supply independent benchmarks and cross-checks.

Geography

Washington, United States

Unit of observation

State fiscal biennium

Update cadence

Ad hoc; update after each odd-year LBN

Curator

FactHub (Claude-assisted analysis)

Curated data tables

Estimated 2023-25 revenue from tax legislation enacted 2013-2024

Each row estimates how much NGF-O revenue in 2023-25 came from a tax change enacted after the 2013-15 base. Used to estimate revenue from the pre-2013 tax base. Low-confidence rows scale first-biennium LBN scores and were not checked against later fiscal notes.

Unit of observation: Tax measure or group of measures

wa-tax-legislation-2023-25.csv text/csv · 2.4 KB (2,438 bytes)

All 12 rows 9 columns Download the file

All 12 rows

id	measure	year year	est2023_25LowBillions $ billions	est2023_25MidBillions $ billions	est2023_25HighBillions $ billions	basis	confidence	sourceIdList
ehb-2242-levy	State school property levy increase (EHB 2242, 2017)	2017	4	4.2	4.4	Actual 2023-25 NGF property tax less a counterfactual levy growing 2.3-3.0% a year from 2013-15.	medium	lbn-2017 lbn-2014 lbn-2024 dor-proptax-2024
capital-gains	Capital gains tax (ESSB 5096, 2021), deposited to ELTA	2021	0.98	0.98	0.98	DOR collections: tax year 2023 $418.6M + tax year 2024 $560.6M (initial).	high	dor-capgains-2025 lbn-2021
weia	Workforce Education Investment Account B&O surcharges (E2SHB 2158, 2019; ESSB 6492, 2020)	2019	0.97	0.97	0.97	ERFC Table 3.17 WEIA collections, 2023-25 (the whole account post-dates 2013).	high	erfc-sep-2026 lbn-2019
graduated-reet	Graduated real estate excise tax (ESSB 5998, 2019)	2019	0.3	0.45	0.6	First score $243.5M for 18 months of 2019-21, scaled; later fiscal notes not checked.	low	lbn-2019
remote-sellers	Remote-seller and marketplace collection (EHB 2163, 2017; SSB 5581, 2019)	2017	0.4	0.65	0.9	First scores $341.0M (2017-19) and $114.9M (2019-21), scaled. Similar laws followed the 2018 Wayfair decision in most states.	low	lbn-2017 lbn-2019
bank-surcharge	B&O surcharge on large financial institutions (SHB 2167, 2019)	2019	0.2	0.25	0.3	First score $133.2M for about 1.5 years, scaled.	low	lbn-2019
package-2015	2015 revenue changes (ESSB 6138 and others)	2015	0.25	0.3	0.35	First score $185.3M net (2015-17), scaled.	low	lbn-2015
package-2013	2013 estate tax and telecommunications changes (EHB 2075, E2SHB 1971)	2013	0.25	0.3	0.35	First score $269.3M (2013-15), scaled.	low	lbn-2013
aerospace-repeal	Repeal of the aerospace preferential B&O rate (ESB 6690, 2020)	2020	0.1	0.2	0.3	First score $134.0M for about 3 months of 2019-21; whether the rate stayed repealed through 2025 was not checked.	low	lbn-2020
base-2019-other	Other 2019 base changes (ESSB 5997, ESB 6016, ESSB 6004)	2019	0.1	0.15	0.2	First scores $117.9M (2019-21), scaled.	low	lbn-2019
sessions-2021-2024	Other 2021-2024 session changes, net	2021	0	0.05	0.1	Session totals: 2021 +432M excluding capital gains, 2022 -67.0M, 2023 +57.3M, 2024 -32.8M.	medium	lbn-2021 lbn-2022 lbn-2023 lbn-2024
preferences	Tax preference extensions and expansions, 2013-2024	2013	-0.5	-0.35	-0.2	Sum of negative line items in the session lists, scaled.	low	lbn-2013 lbn-2015 lbn-2017 lbn-2019

9 field definitions

Field	Type	Meaning	Units	Value type
id	string	Row identifier.	—	derived
measure	string	The legislation (bill and year).	—	observed
year	integer	Session year enacted (first year for grouped rows).	year	observed
est2023_25LowBillions	number	Low estimate of 2023-25 NGF-O revenue from the measure.	$ billions	estimated
est2023_25MidBillions	number	Central estimate.	$ billions	estimated
est2023_25HighBillions	number	High estimate.	$ billions	estimated
basis	string	How the estimate was made.	—	derived
confidence	string	high (measured receipts), medium, or low (scaled first-biennium scores).	—	derived
sourceIdList	string	Space-separated ids of the dataset sources used for the row.	—	derived

Supporting files

Source snapshots, manifests, quality reports, documentation, and other materials used to produce or review this release.

• build.js Transformation manifest · text/javascript · 9.6 KB (9,829 bytes)

  Node.js script that holds every input figure with its source and computes all tables and saved-analysis results (node build.js).

• build_v2.js Transformation manifest · text/javascript · 18.8 KB (19,269 bytes)

  Node.js script holding every version 2 input figure with its source; computes the v2 tables and saved-analysis results (node build_v2.js, after node build.js).

• v2-content.json Documentation · application/json · 97.1 KB (99,421 bytes)

  Machine-readable copy of this version's sources, tables, saved analyses, statements, events, limitations, replications and changelog, from which the dataset content was expanded (generated by build_payload_v2.js).

Sources

1. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2007: final 2005-07 NGF-S and all-funds totals (2005-07 Budget vs. 2007-09 Budget, Total State, including appropriations in other legislation; NGF-S Summary Report p. 13).

   Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

   Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

2. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2009: final 2007-09 and enacted 2009-11 totals.

   Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

   Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

3. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2011: final 2009-11 and enacted 2011-13 totals.

   Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

   Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

4. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2013: final 2011-13 and enacted 2013-15 totals.

   Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

   Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

5. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2015: final 2013-15 totals and functional areas (2013-15 Budget vs. 2015-17 Budget, Total State, p. O-23), enacted 2015-17.

   Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

   Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

6. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2017: final 2015-17 and enacted 2017-19 totals; EHB 2242 property-tax and levy reform.

   Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

   Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

7. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2019: final 2017-19 and enacted 2019-21 totals; creation of the Workforce Education Investment Account (E2SHB 2158).

   Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

8. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2021: final 2019-21 and enacted 2021-23 totals.

   Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

   Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

9. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2023: final 2021-23 and enacted 2023-25 totals.

   Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

   Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

10. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2025: final 2023-25 totals and functional areas (2023-25 Budget vs. 2025-27 Budget, Functional Area Totals, p. O-16), enacted 2025-27.

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

11. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2026: 2025-27 appropriations after the 2026 supplemental ($80,203,984K NGF-O; $157,299,314K total budgeted).

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

12. Washington State Office of Financial Management April 1 population estimates, Table 1 (Population Trends, October 2026 edition).

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

13. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, annual averages (series CUUR0000SA0).

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. U.S. government work (public domain). Public domain.

    Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

14. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-U, Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, all items, annual averages (series CUURS49DSA0).

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. U.S. government work (public domain). Public domain.

    Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

15. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis State annual personal income, SAINC1 line 1, Washington (GeoFIPS 53000), $ millions.

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. U.S. government work (public domain). Public domain.

    Archived copy captured October 9, 2026

16. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2014: 2014 supplemental; February 2014 revenue forecast for 2013-15 by source (property tax $3,949.1M, p. O-18).

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

17. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2016: 2016 supplemental maintenance-level and policy totals (p. O-11).

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

18. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2018: 2018 supplemental maintenance-level and policy totals (p. O-11); ESSB 6614 one-year state levy cut.

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

19. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2020: 2020 supplemental totals (p. O-12); ESB 6690 aerospace preferential-rate repeal.

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

20. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2022: 2022 supplemental maintenance-level and policy totals (p. O-12).

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

21. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2024: 2024 supplemental totals (p. O-1); February 2024 revenue forecast for 2023-25 by source (property tax $9,330M, p. O-8).

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

22. Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council Washington Economic and Revenue Forecast, September 2026. Table 3.17 (printed p. 70): GF-S, ELTA, OPA and WEIA collections by fiscal year and biennium, cash basis, restated to the current GF-S definition.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

23. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) State and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment, chain-type price index, 2017=100, annual (BEA NIPA Table 3.9.4; FRED series B829RG3A086NBEA).

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. U.S. government work (public domain). Public domain.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

24. National Association of State Budget Officers The Fiscal Survey of States, Spring 2026. Table 1, Fiscal 2025 State General Fund, Actual (expenditures by state).

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. NASBO publication; free public download. Linked, not redistributed; figures quoted for comparison.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

25. National Association of State Budget Officers The Fiscal Survey of States, Spring 2020. Table 3, Fiscal 2019 State General Fund, Actual.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. NASBO publication; free public download. Linked, not redistributed; figures quoted for comparison.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

26. National Association of State Budget Officers (via IssueLab) The Fiscal Survey of States, Spring 2015. Table 3, Fiscal 2014 State General Fund, Actual (p. 4).

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. NASBO publication; free public download. Linked, not redistributed; figures quoted for comparison.

    Archived copy captured September 10, 2024

27. Washington Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction School District Financial Reporting Summary 2024-25, Section One: Table Three per-pupil revenue by source (2023-24 check values) and Table Eleven local levies by calendar year.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

28. Washington Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction 10-year F-196 historical data 2024-25 (Excel): sheets "REV by Source" (General Fund revenue by source, 2014-15 to 2024-25) and "Enrollment" (annual average FTE).

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

29. Washington Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction School District Financial Reporting Summary 2015-16, Section One: Table Two enrollment and Table Three per-pupil revenue by source for 2013-14.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

30. Washington State Department of Revenue Property Tax Statistics 2024: state school levy Part 1 and Part 2 amounts (PDF p. 40).

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

31. Washington State Department of Revenue News release, June 5, 2025: capital gains collections for tax year 2024 ($560.6M initial) and tax year 2023 ($418.6M).

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Archived copy captured August 7, 2026

32. Washington State Senate Republican Caucus (Sen. Chris Gildon) Primary source for statement gildon-doubled: press release "As predicted, majority’s ‘house of cards’ budget leads to deficit", June 9, 2026.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Washington State Legislature publication. Linked; quoted for attribution.

    Archived copy captured October 10, 2026

33. Northwest Progressive Institute (Andrew Villeneuve) Primary source for statement npi-budget-smaller: Cascadia Advocate post "Washington State’s budget has been shrinking, not growing, despite statements to the contrary by former elected officials", May 18, 2026 (updated June 4, 2026).

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. NPI publication; all rights reserved. Linked; short quotation for attribution.

    Archived copy captured July 8, 2026

Limitations and reproducibility

Reproducible from public sources: Every input figure is written into build.js with the LBN edition and table it came from; node build.js regenerates every table and saved-analysis result. LBN tables were read from text extracts of the PDFs; readers can check each value against the cited page.

• Appropriations are authority to spend, not actual expenditures; some appropriations lapse unspent each biennium.
• The Near General Fund basket changed over time (2009 account merges into GF-S; NGF-P from 2013; NGF-O adds the Workforce Education Investment Account from 2019-21). Part of the measured growth is accounts moving into the basket rather than new spending; the 2019 LBN projected WEIA revenue at $773.3M for 2019-21, about 1.5% of the 2019-21 NGF-O total, so the basket change explains only a small part of the growth.
• Values are nominal; inflation adjustments use consumer prices (CPI-U), which may not match the cost of what government buys (wages, health care).
• 2021-23 is inflated by one-time items (about $7.6B in Special Appropriations, including transfers to the Washington Rescue Plan Transition Account).
• 2025-27 is in progress and its figure reflects appropriations through the 2026 supplemental only.
• Benchmarks are pegged to each biennium's middle year, an approximation of fiscal-year timing.
• Revenue counterfactuals are static estimates and several tax-legislation rows scale first-biennium scores (see table tax-legislation confidence).
• Cross-state comparisons (NASBO) use each state's own general fund definition and are nominal.
• Program-group mappings were read from text extracts of LBN tables and checked against published totals; a few rows (noted) could not be split further.