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Data

Income of households moving to and from Washington, IRS migration data, 2011-12 to 2022-23

IRS Statistics of Income state-to-state migration data for Washington and six comparison states (Oregon, California, Idaho, Texas, Florida, Arizona): tax returns, people and adjusted gross income (AGI) of households that moved in and out, average AGI per return and per person, net moves of $200,000-plus filers, all-state rankings, Washington's partner states and an age check.

Coverage: IRS filing-year pairs 2011-12 through 2022-23 (income for tax years 2011 through 2022). 2023-24 was not yet published on November 3, 2026.

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What this dataset measures

Built to check the claim, posted November 2, 2026 by the Yes on Initiative 645 campaign, that households leaving Washington since 2021 have earned more on average than households moving in. Six comparison states (neighbors, the biggest destinations and California) and all-state rankings test whether Washington's pattern is unusual.

Geography
Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, Texas, Florida, Arizona, United States (all states, rankings)
Unit of observation
State and filing-year pair
Update cadence
Annual, when IRS publishes a new migration year
Curator
FactHub Research Team

Curated data tables

These related tables form this versioned dataset release. Each table has its own downloadable file and field definitions.

Movers in and out, by state and filing-year pair

One row per state and filing-year pair. Interstate moves only (IRS 'Total Migration-US' rows), except the hi_ columns, which come from the gross migration file.

Unit of observation: State and filing-year pair

View this table

fh-state-year-migration.csv text/csv · 11.7 KB (11,953 bytes)
22 field definitions
FieldTypeMeaningUnitsValue type
state string Postal code: WA, OR, CA, ID, TX, FL or AZ. — observed
filing_years string IRS filing-year pair, such as 2022-23: address on the return filed in 2022 versus 2023. Income is for the second year's tax year (2022 for 2022-23). — observed
in_returns integer Returns that moved into the state from another state (n1). returns observed
in_individuals integer People on those returns (n2; exemptions before 2019-20). people observed
in_agi_thousands integer Year-2 AGI of those returns. thousands of dollars observed
out_returns integer Returns that moved out to another state. returns observed
out_individuals integer People on those returns. people observed
out_agi_thousands integer Year-2 AGI of those returns. thousands of dollars observed
avg_agi_in integer Average AGI per arriving return. dollars derived
avg_agi_out integer Average AGI per leaving return. dollars derived
leaver_premium_pct number How much higher leavers' average AGI was than arrivals' (negative: arrivals higher). percent derived
agi_per_person_in integer Arrivals' AGI per person. dollars derived
agi_per_person_out integer Leavers' AGI per person. dollars derived
per_person_premium_pct number Leaver premium per person. percent derived
net_returns integer Arrivals minus leavers. returns derived
net_agi_thousands integer Arrivals' AGI minus leavers' AGI. thousands of dollars derived
hi_out_returns integer Leaving returns with year-2 AGI of $200,000 or more (gross file outflow_n1_0, agi_stub 7). returns observed
hi_in_returns integer Arriving returns with AGI of $200,000 or more (inflow_n1_0, agi_stub 7). returns observed
hi_net_returns integer Net $200,000-plus returns gained (negative: lost). returns derived
hi_matched_returns integer All matched returns in the state with AGI of $200,000 or more (total_n1_0, agi_stub 7). returns observed
hi_net_pct_of_matched number Net $200,000-plus returns as a share of the state's matched $200,000-plus returns. percent derived
hi_net_agi_thousands integer Net year-2 AGI of $200,000-plus movers. thousands of dollars derived

Leaver premium in every state, 2020-21 to 2022-23

All 50 states and DC, ranked within each year from the largest leaver premium down.

Unit of observation: State and filing-year pair

View this table

fh-all-states-leaver-premium.csv text/csv · 8.5 KB (8,681 bytes)
10 field definitions
FieldTypeMeaningUnitsValue type
filing_years string IRS filing-year pair. — observed
state string Postal code. — observed
rank integer 1 = leavers out-earned arrivals by the most. rank derived
avg_agi_in integer Average AGI per arriving return. dollars derived
avg_agi_out integer Average AGI per leaving return. dollars derived
leaver_premium_pct number Leavers' average over arrivals', percent. percent derived
agi_per_person_in integer Arrivals' AGI per person. dollars derived
agi_per_person_out integer Leavers' AGI per person. dollars derived
per_person_premium_pct number Leaver premium per person. percent derived
net_agi_thousands integer Arrivals' AGI minus leavers' AGI. thousands of dollars derived

Washington's moves to and from each state, 2021-22 and 2022-23

One row per partner state and year, sorted by returns leaving Washington. IRS suppresses cells under 10 returns (shown as -1 in its files); those rows have empty averages here.

Unit of observation: Partner state and filing-year pair

View this table

fh-wa-partner-states.csv text/csv · 5.3 KB (5,388 bytes)
9 field definitions
FieldTypeMeaningUnitsValue type
filing_years string IRS filing-year pair. — observed
state string Partner state postal code. — observed
left_wa_returns integer Returns that moved from Washington to this state. returns observed
left_wa_agi_thousands integer Their year-2 AGI. thousands of dollars observed
came_to_wa_returns integer Returns that moved from this state to Washington; -1 if IRS suppressed it. returns observed
came_to_wa_agi_thousands integer Their year-2 AGI; -1 if suppressed. thousands of dollars observed
avg_agi_leaving integer Average AGI of returns leaving Washington for this state. dollars derived
avg_agi_arriving integer Average AGI of returns arriving from this state; empty if suppressed. dollars derived
net_agi_to_wa_thousands integer Arriving AGI minus leaving AGI; empty if either is suppressed. thousands of dollars derived

Washington leavers and arrivals by age, 2017-18 to 2022-23

From the gross migration file (moves abroad included, negative-AGI returns excluded), by age of the primary taxpayer.

Unit of observation: Filing-year pair and age band

View this table

fh-wa-age-bands.csv text/csv · 2.1 KB (2,117 bytes)
8 field definitions
FieldTypeMeaningUnitsValue type
filing_years string IRS filing-year pair. — observed
age_band string Age of the primary taxpayer: under 26, 26-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65 and over. — observed
out_returns integer Leaving returns (outflow_n1_k). returns observed
out_agi_thousands integer Their year-2 AGI (outflow_y2_agi_k). thousands of dollars observed
in_returns integer Arriving returns (inflow_n1_k). returns observed
in_agi_thousands integer Their year-2 AGI (inflow_y2_agi_k). thousands of dollars observed
avg_agi_out integer Leavers' average AGI in this age band. dollars derived
avg_agi_in integer Arrivals' average AGI in this age band. dollars derived

Supporting files

Source snapshots, manifests, quality reports, documentation, and other materials used to produce or review this release.

  • fh-analysis-results.json Documentation · application/json · 24.9 KB (25,481 bytes)

    Saved-analysis results written by the build script.

  • fh-build-migration-dataset.js Transformation manifest · text/javascript · 8 KB (8,170 bytes)

    Node.js script that reads the IRS files and writes every table and result here.

Saved analyses

Average income of households leaving and moving to Washington

Question: Have households leaving Washington earned more on average than households moving in?

Result: Leavers out-earned arrivals in 2020-21 ($94,058 vs $92,638), 2021-22 ($119,403 vs $103,160) and 2022-23 ($100,122 vs $89,890). Arrivals earned more in 7 of the 9 earlier years; leavers also earned more in 2013-14 (+0.2%) and 2018-19 (+7.3%).

Operation: For Washington, avg_agi_out and avg_agi_in from table state-year, each filing-year pair.

Scope: Washington, interstate moves, 2011-12 to 2022-23

View this analysis

  • Averages per return depend on household size and age mix; see the robustness checks.
  • 2022-23 uses IRS's new matching method.

Robustness checks

Washington movers per return and per person, 2022-23

Question: How much of the 2022-23 gap is household size?

Result: Per return: $100,122 vs $89,890 (+11.4%). Per person: $58,385 vs $57,017 (+2.4%). People per return: 1.71 vs 1.58.

Operation: From table state-year, WA 2022-23: AGI per return, AGI per person, and people per return for leavers and arrivals.

Scope: Washington, 2022-23

View this analysis

  • Counts of people come from the year-2 return.

Robustness check for: Average income of households leaving and moving to Washington

Washington leavers vs arrivals, adjusted for age

Question: Is the gap only because arrivals are younger?

Result: 2021-22: leavers $122,056 vs age-adjusted arrivals $112,194 (4 of 6 bands higher). 2022-23: $102,949 vs $96,041 (5 of 6). 2017-18, 2019-20 and 2020-21: age-adjusted arrivals higher.

Operation: From table age-bands: number of the six age bands where leavers' average AGI is higher, and arrivals' average AGI reweighted to leavers' age mix (sum over bands of leavers' returns × arrivals' band average ÷ leavers' returns).

Scope: Washington, 2017-18 to 2022-23, gross migration file

View this analysis

  • Uses the gross file, which includes moves abroad and excludes negative-AGI returns, so averages differ slightly from the state-to-state files.
  • Age is the primary taxpayer's only.

Robustness check for: Average income of households leaving and moving to Washington

Washington movers' income in the year before and the year of the move

Question: Did leavers already earn more before they moved?

Result: 2021-22: year-1 $93,925 leavers vs $92,927 arrivals; year-2 $122,056 vs $104,341. 2022-23: year-1 $113,798 vs $86,117; year-2 $102,949 vs $91,357.

Operation: Gross file, all AGI classes: outflow and inflow year-1 and year-2 AGI ÷ returns.

Scope: Washington, 2020-21 to 2022-23

View this analysis

  • Year-1 income of a mover may itself be partly from the new state.

Robustness check for: Average income of households leaving and moving to Washington

Net $200,000-plus filers moving to Washington

Question: Has Washington been gaining or losing high-income filers?

Result: Gains every year from 2011-12 (+337) to 2019-20 (+903), peaking at +2,400 in 2016-17. Losses in 2020-21 (−111), 2021-22 (−1,579) and 2022-23 (−2,057).

Operation: hi_net_returns for WA from table state-year.

Scope: Washington, 2011-12 to 2022-23, gross migration file

View this analysis

  • $200,000 is a nominal threshold; more filers cross it as incomes rise.
  • Includes moves abroad.

Net $200,000-plus filers, Washington and comparison states, 2022-23

Question: Is Washington's loss of high earners unusual?

Result: WA −2,057 (−0.51% of its $200,000-plus filers); OR −719 (−0.50%); CA −15,705 (−0.85%); ID +1,326 (+2.60%); TX +5,084 (+0.53%); FL +21,908 (+3.10%); AZ +3,119 (+1.45%).

Operation: hi_net_returns and hi_net_pct_of_matched by state, 2022-23.

Scope: WA, OR, CA, ID, TX, FL, AZ, 2022-23

View this analysis

  • One year; see table state-year for others.

Leaver premium in Washington and comparison states

Question: Do other states show the same gap between leavers and arrivals?

Result: 2022-23: WA +11.4%, OR +9.8%, CA +6.9%, TX −3.9%, AZ −13.6%, ID −21.2%, FL −37.9%.

Operation: leaver_premium_pct by state and filing-year pair from table state-year.

Scope: WA, OR, CA, ID, TX, FL, AZ, 2011-12 to 2022-23

View this analysis

  • A state with many high-income retirees arriving (such as Florida) shows a large negative premium.

Leaver premium in every state, 2022-23

Question: Where does Washington rank?

Result: Leavers out-earned arrivals in 29 of 51. Washington ranked 10th (+11.4%), after DC, IL, MA, MN, ND, OH, NY, PA and AK. Per person Washington ranked 25th (+2.4%).

Operation: Rows of table all-states for 2022-23.

Scope: 50 states and DC, 2022-23

View this analysis

  • Small states' averages swing with a few large incomes.

Robustness check for: Average income of households leaving and moving to Washington

Leaver premium in every state, 2021-22

Question: Where did Washington rank the year before?

Result: Leavers out-earned arrivals in 28 of 51. Washington ranked 8th (+15.7%), after IL, MN, DC, ND, NJ, OH and CA.

Operation: Rows of table all-states for 2021-22.

Scope: 50 states and DC, 2021-22

View this analysis

  • Tax year 2021 had unusually large capital gains nationwide.

Washington's largest migration partners, 2022-23

Question: Where do Washington's leavers go, and where do arrivals come from?

Result: California and Oregon sent more households and income than they took (+$669 million and +$487 million). Arizona (−$385 million), Texas (−$318 million), Florida (−$312 million) and Idaho (−$208 million) took more.

Operation: Top eight partner states by returns leaving Washington, from table partner-states.

Scope: Washington, 2022-23

View this analysis

  • One year.

Washington's 2022-23 net income loss compared with all its matched income

Question: How large is the net loss?

Result: −$265 million of $393.5 billion, about 0.07%.

Operation: Net interstate AGI (table state-year, WA 2022-23) ÷ total matched year-2 AGI in the gross file (total_y2_agi_0, all classes).

Scope: Washington, 2022-23

View this analysis

  • The gross-file total excludes negative-AGI returns.

Sources

  1. Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income (SOI): U.S. Population Migration Data Index of every migration year. State-to-state files used: https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/stateinflowYYYY.csv and stateoutflowYYYY.csv for YYYY = 1112 through 2223 (rows for each state's 'Total Migration-US' and for Washington's partner states).

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Allowed; IRS data are U.S. government works.

    Reliability: Government. Built by IRS from address changes on the full population of individual income tax returns filed in two consecutive years. IRS has no stake in Washington's tax debate.

  2. IRS SOI Tax Stats, Migration Data 2022-2023 Release page for the latest year, linking stateinflow2223.csv, stateoutflow2223.csv and the gross migration file 2223inmigall.csv.

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Allowed.

    Reliability: Government. Official IRS release page. The 2023-24 files were not published as of November 3, 2026 (stateinflow2324.csv returned HTTP 404).

  3. IRS SOI gross migration file by AGI class and age, 2022-2023 (2223inmigall.csv), and the same file for earlier years Inflow, outflow and matched returns by AGI class (agi_stub 7 = $200,000 or more) and by age of the primary taxpayer, with year-1 and year-2 AGI. Earlier years at https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/YYYYinmigall.csv for YYYY = 1112 through 2122.

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Allowed.

    Reliability: Government. Same IRS return-matching as the state-to-state files, but excludes returns with negative AGI and includes moves abroad.

  4. IRS, 2022-2023 Migration Data Users Guide Definitions: AGI is from the year-2 return and in thousands of dollars; 2022-23 matching change; disclosure rules; AGI classes and age groups in the gross file.

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (U.S. government work). Allowed.

    Reliability: Government. IRS's own documentation of the files.

  5. Revised Code of Washington 82.87.040, capital gains tax imposed Date the capital gains tax began: sales on or after January 1, 2022.

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (Washington State law). Allowed.

    Reliability: Government. The official statute text published by the Washington Legislature's Code Reviser.

  6. Engrossed Substitute Senate Bill 6346, Chapter 238, Laws of 2026 (session law) Washington's 9.9% tax on taxable income over $1 million: approved March 30, 2026; tax imposed beginning January 1, 2028.

    Retrieved November 3, 2026. Public domain (Washington State law). Allowed.

    Reliability: Government. The enrolled session law as published by the Washington Legislature.

Limitations and reproducibility

Reproducible from public sources: Every input is a published IRS SOI migration file (stateinflowYYYY.csv, stateoutflowYYYY.csv, YYYYinmigall.csv at https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/). The included script fh-build-migration-dataset.js reads those files and writes every table and saved-analysis result in this dataset.

  • The latest IRS file is 2022-23: moves between the returns filed in 2022 and 2023, with income from tax year 2022. It cannot show any response to Washington's 2026 income tax, which applies from January 1, 2028.
  • Covers only people who filed federal tax returns in both years and could be matched by taxpayer ID. Non-filers are left out.
  • AGI comes from the second-year return, filed from the new address, so part of a mover's income may have been earned in the old state.
  • Averages are pulled up by a few very high incomes and one-time gains, such as stock or home sales. IRS publishes no medians.
  • IRS changed its matching method for 2022-23, adding about 5% more returns. 2014-15 return counts are unusually low in both directions.
  • Interstate flows exclude moves abroad. The $200,000-plus counts come from IRS's gross migration file, which includes moves abroad and leaves out returns with negative AGI, so its totals differ slightly from the state-to-state files.
  • The $200,000 class is a fixed dollar amount, so more filers cross it as incomes rise. It is far below the $1 million threshold of Washington's 2026 income tax, and IRS migration data have no $1 million class.

Publications using this dataset

Version details

The exact citing versions, and the version of this dataset each cites.

  • Article wa-leavers-earn-more-than-arrivals — version 1 (published) cites version 1
  • Chart wa-movers-average-income — version 1 (published) cites version 1
  • Chart leaver-income-premium-wa-peers — version 1 (published) cites version 1
  • Chart wa-net-high-earner-movers — version 1 (published) cites version 1

Node: dataset:wa-irs-migration-income