FactHub saved analysis

Growth from 2005-07 to 2023-25 vs. benchmarks

From a pre-recession base, how did NGF growth compare with population, inflation and personal income?

Coverage: 2005-07 through 2025-27 bienniums (benchmarks 2005-2025)

Node: dataset:wa-general-fund-growth:5:analysis:growth-2005-to-2023

Contained in Washington Near General Fund budget and revenue by biennium, 2005-07 to 2027-29, with benchmarks, growth drivers, K-12, cross-state and millionaires-tax comparisons.

What this dataset measures

Assembled to check claims about Washington's general-fund budget growth, including Sen. Chris Gildon's June 2026 statement that state spending has doubled in a decade and the Northwest Progressive Institute's May 2026 statement that the budget has gotten smaller in relative terms. The Legislative Budget Notes are the Legislature's own record of appropriations; ERFC is the official revenue record; OFM, BLS, BEA, OSPI and NASBO supply independent benchmarks and cross-checks.

Supporting files

Source snapshots, manifests, quality reports, documentation, and other materials used to produce or review this release.

  • build.js Transformation manifest · text/javascript · 9.6 KB (9,829 bytes)

    Node.js script that holds every input figure with its source and computes all tables and saved-analysis results (node build.js).

  • build_v2.js Transformation manifest · text/javascript · 18.8 KB (19,269 bytes)

    Node.js script holding every version 2 input figure with its source; computes the v2 tables and saved-analysis results (node build_v2.js, after node build.js).

  • v2-content.json Documentation · application/json · 97.1 KB (99,421 bytes)

    Machine-readable copy of this version's sources, tables, saved analyses, statements, events, limitations, replications and changelog, from which the dataset content was expanded (generated by build_payload_v2.js).

  • spending_vs_need.js Transformation manifest · text/javascript · 10.8 KB (11,050 bytes)

    Node.js script that computes the spending paths, tax-to-excess ratios, the composition of the excess and the 2027-29 outlook scenarios from this dataset's tables and the outlook inputs.

  • build_v3_tables.js Transformation manifest · text/javascript · 3.2 KB (3,231 bytes)

    Node.js script that writes the need-vs-growth and outlook-gap tables from the output of spending_vs_need.js.

  • outlook_inputs.json Source manifest · application/json · 395 bytes

    The April 2026 outlook figures ($ billions) and the WRC adjusted balance used by spending_vs_need.js, with their sources.

Saved analyses

Growth from 2005-07 to 2023-25 vs. benchmarks

Question: From a pre-recession base, how did NGF growth compare with population, inflation and personal income?

Result: Final NGF rose 141.1% ($30.17B to $72.74B) over 18 years. Population x US CPI-U rose 94.8% (Seattle: 113.1%). Real per-capita NGF rose 23.8% (US CPI-U) or 13.1% (Seattle CPI-U). Personal income rose 166.2%, faster than NGF.

Operation: As growth-2013-to-2023, with 2005-07 as the base.

Scope: tables ngf-by-biennium and benchmarks, rows 2005-07 and 2023-25

View this analysis

  • Appropriations are authority to spend, not actual expenditures; some appropriations lapse unspent each biennium.
  • The Near General Fund basket changed over time (2009 account merges into GF-S; NGF-P from 2013; NGF-O adds the Workforce Education Investment Account from 2019-21). Part of the measured growth is accounts moving into the basket rather than new spending; the 2019 LBN projected WEIA revenue at $773.3M for 2019-21, about 1.5% of the 2019-21 NGF-O total, so the basket change explains only a small part of the growth.
  • Values are nominal; inflation adjustments use consumer prices (CPI-U), which may not match the cost of what government buys (wages, health care).
  • The 2005-07 NGF-S basket included several accounts (Health Services, Student Achievement, Public Safety and Education and others) that were later merged into GF-S; it is the closest available comparison but not identical to NGF-O.

Robustness check for: Growth from 2013-15 to 2023-25 vs. benchmarks

Sources

  1. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2007: final 2005-07 NGF-S and all-funds totals (2005-07 Budget vs. 2007-09 Budget, Total State, including appropriations in other legislation; NGF-S Summary Report p. 13).

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. Prepared by nonpartisan legislative fiscal staff (LEAP and the fiscal committees) from the enacted budget bills; the standard reference for Washington operating-budget totals and agency detail.

  2. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2009: final 2007-09 and enacted 2009-11 totals.

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. Prepared by nonpartisan legislative fiscal staff (LEAP and the fiscal committees) from the enacted budget bills; the standard reference for Washington operating-budget totals and agency detail.

  3. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2011: final 2009-11 and enacted 2011-13 totals.

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. Prepared by nonpartisan legislative fiscal staff (LEAP and the fiscal committees) from the enacted budget bills; the standard reference for Washington operating-budget totals and agency detail.

  4. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2013: final 2011-13 and enacted 2013-15 totals.

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. Prepared by nonpartisan legislative fiscal staff (LEAP and the fiscal committees) from the enacted budget bills; the standard reference for Washington operating-budget totals and agency detail.

  5. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2015: final 2013-15 totals and functional areas (2013-15 Budget vs. 2015-17 Budget, Total State, p. O-23), enacted 2015-17.

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. Prepared by nonpartisan legislative fiscal staff (LEAP and the fiscal committees) from the enacted budget bills; the standard reference for Washington operating-budget totals and agency detail.

  6. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2017: final 2015-17 and enacted 2017-19 totals; EHB 2242 property-tax and levy reform.

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. Prepared by nonpartisan legislative fiscal staff (LEAP and the fiscal committees) from the enacted budget bills; the standard reference for Washington operating-budget totals and agency detail.

  7. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2019: final 2017-19 and enacted 2019-21 totals; creation of the Workforce Education Investment Account (E2SHB 2158).

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. Prepared by nonpartisan legislative fiscal staff (LEAP and the fiscal committees) from the enacted budget bills; the standard reference for Washington operating-budget totals and agency detail.

  8. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2021: final 2019-21 and enacted 2021-23 totals.

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. Prepared by nonpartisan legislative fiscal staff (LEAP and the fiscal committees) from the enacted budget bills; the standard reference for Washington operating-budget totals and agency detail.

  9. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2023: final 2021-23 and enacted 2023-25 totals.

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. Prepared by nonpartisan legislative fiscal staff (LEAP and the fiscal committees) from the enacted budget bills; the standard reference for Washington operating-budget totals and agency detail.

  10. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2025: final 2023-25 totals and functional areas (2023-25 Budget vs. 2025-27 Budget, Functional Area Totals, p. O-16), enacted 2025-27.

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. Prepared by nonpartisan legislative fiscal staff (LEAP and the fiscal committees) from the enacted budget bills; the standard reference for Washington operating-budget totals and agency detail.

  11. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2026: 2025-27 appropriations after the 2026 supplemental ($80,203,984K NGF-O; $157,299,314K total budgeted).

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. Prepared by nonpartisan legislative fiscal staff (LEAP and the fiscal committees) from the enacted budget bills; the standard reference for Washington operating-budget totals and agency detail.

  12. Washington State Office of Financial Management April 1 population estimates, Table 1 (Population Trends, October 2026 edition).

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. Official April 1 population estimates by the Office of Financial Management, used by law to distribute state funds.

  13. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, annual averages (series CUUR0000SA0).

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. U.S. government work (public domain). Public domain.

    Reliability: Government. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, U.S. city average, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics price survey.

  14. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-U, Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, all items, annual averages (series CUURS49DSA0).

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. U.S. government work (public domain). Public domain.

    Reliability: Government. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics; published every other month, so annual averages are used.

  15. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis State annual personal income, SAINC1 line 1, Washington (GeoFIPS 53000), $ millions.

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. U.S. government work (public domain). Public domain.

    Reliability: Government. Bureau of Economic Analysis state personal income estimates (SAINC1), revised periodically.

  16. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2014: 2014 supplemental; February 2014 revenue forecast for 2013-15 by source (property tax $3,949.1M, p. O-18).

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. Prepared by nonpartisan legislative fiscal staff (LEAP and the fiscal committees) from the enacted budget bills; the standard reference for Washington operating-budget totals and agency detail.

  17. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2016: 2016 supplemental maintenance-level and policy totals (p. O-11).

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. Prepared by nonpartisan legislative fiscal staff (LEAP and the fiscal committees) from the enacted budget bills; the standard reference for Washington operating-budget totals and agency detail.

  18. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2018: 2018 supplemental maintenance-level and policy totals (p. O-11); ESSB 6614 one-year state levy cut.

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. Prepared by nonpartisan legislative fiscal staff (LEAP and the fiscal committees) from the enacted budget bills; the standard reference for Washington operating-budget totals and agency detail.

  19. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2020: 2020 supplemental totals (p. O-12); ESB 6690 aerospace preferential-rate repeal.

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. Prepared by nonpartisan legislative fiscal staff (LEAP and the fiscal committees) from the enacted budget bills; the standard reference for Washington operating-budget totals and agency detail.

  20. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2022: 2022 supplemental maintenance-level and policy totals (p. O-12).

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. Prepared by nonpartisan legislative fiscal staff (LEAP and the fiscal committees) from the enacted budget bills; the standard reference for Washington operating-budget totals and agency detail.

  21. Washington State Legislature fiscal committees and LEAP Legislative Budget Notes 2024: 2024 supplemental totals (p. O-1); February 2024 revenue forecast for 2023-25 by source (property tax $9,330M, p. O-8).

    Retrieved October 9, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. Prepared by nonpartisan legislative fiscal staff (LEAP and the fiscal committees) from the enacted budget bills; the standard reference for Washington operating-budget totals and agency detail.

  22. Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council Washington Economic and Revenue Forecast, September 2026. Table 3.17 (printed p. 70): GF-S, ELTA, OPA and WEIA collections by fiscal year and biennium, cash basis, restated to the current GF-S definition.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. Official revenue forecast adopted by the bipartisan Economic and Revenue Forecast Council; Table 3.17 restates history to the current NGF-O definition.

  23. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) State and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment, chain-type price index, 2017=100, annual (BEA NIPA Table 3.9.4; FRED series B829RG3A086NBEA).

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. U.S. government work (public domain). Public domain.

    Reliability: Government. BEA chain-type price index for state and local government consumption and gross investment (NIPA Table 3.9.4), retrieved through FRED.

  24. National Association of State Budget Officers The Fiscal Survey of States, Spring 2026. Table 1, Fiscal 2025 State General Fund, Actual (expenditures by state).

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. NASBO publication; free public download. Linked, not redistributed; figures quoted for comparison.

    Reliability: Other. Survey of state budget officers by the National Association of State Budget Officers; each state reports its own general fund, so definitions differ (Washington reports GF-S only).

  25. National Association of State Budget Officers The Fiscal Survey of States, Spring 2020. Table 3, Fiscal 2019 State General Fund, Actual.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. NASBO publication; free public download. Linked, not redistributed; figures quoted for comparison.

    Reliability: Other. Survey of state budget officers by the National Association of State Budget Officers; each state reports its own general fund, so definitions differ.

  26. National Association of State Budget Officers (via IssueLab) The Fiscal Survey of States, Spring 2015. Table 3, Fiscal 2014 State General Fund, Actual (p. 4).

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. NASBO publication; free public download. Linked, not redistributed; figures quoted for comparison.

    Reliability: Other. Survey of state budget officers by the National Association of State Budget Officers, hosted by IssueLab; each state reports its own general fund.

  27. Washington Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction School District Financial Reporting Summary 2024-25, Section One: Table Three per-pupil revenue by source (2023-24 check values) and Table Eleven local levies by calendar year.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. School district financial reporting (F-196) compiled by the Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction from districts' year-end reports.

  28. Washington Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction 10-year F-196 historical data 2024-25 (Excel): sheets "REV by Source" (General Fund revenue by source, 2014-15 to 2024-25) and "Enrollment" (annual average FTE).

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. Ten-year history of district F-196 financial reports compiled by OSPI.

  29. Washington Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction School District Financial Reporting Summary 2015-16, Section One: Table Two enrollment and Table Three per-pupil revenue by source for 2013-14.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. School district financial reporting (F-196) compiled by OSPI for 2015-16, including 2013-14 comparison tables.

  30. Washington State Department of Revenue Property Tax Statistics 2024: state school levy Part 1 and Part 2 amounts (PDF p. 40).

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. Annual property tax statistics compiled by the Department of Revenue from county assessor and treasurer reports.

  31. Washington State Department of Revenue News release, June 5, 2025: capital gains collections for tax year 2024 ($560.6M initial) and tax year 2023 ($418.6M).

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. Department of Revenue news release on initial capital gains tax collections; later amendments and audits can change the totals.

  32. Washington State Senate Republican Caucus (Sen. Chris Gildon) Primary source for statement gildon-doubled: press release "As predicted, majority’s ‘house of cards’ budget leads to deficit", June 9, 2026.

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. Washington State Legislature publication. Linked; quoted for attribution.

    Reliability: Party to the dispute. Has a stake in this finding. Press release by Sen. Chris Gildon (R), ranking Republican on the Senate budget committee, criticizing the majority's budget; recorded as the claim checked.

  33. Northwest Progressive Institute (Andrew Villeneuve) Primary source for statement npi-budget-smaller: Cascadia Advocate post "Washington State’s budget has been shrinking, not growing, despite statements to the contrary by former elected officials", May 18, 2026 (updated June 4, 2026).

    Retrieved October 10, 2026. NPI publication; all rights reserved. Linked; short quotation for attribution.

    Reliability: Advocacy group. Has a stake in this finding. Blog post by the Northwest Progressive Institute, which supports new progressive revenue; recorded as the main counter-claim.

  34. Washington State Office of Financial Management (multiple-agency fiscal note) Fiscal note for ESSB 6346 (2026), the 9.9% tax on household income over $1 million: Department of Revenue 'Tax on Income' gross revenue by fiscal year (FY2029 $2,698,000,000; FY2030 $3,732,000,000; FY2031 $3,167,000,000) and the net NGF-O impact by biennium ($2,309,180,000 in 2027-29).

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. Prepared by the Department of Revenue and OFM for the Legislature. The revenue estimate is static: it assumes affected taxpayers do not reduce taxable income.

  35. Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council Four-year budget outlook adopted April 22, 2026 for the enacted 2026 supplemental budget: NGF-O revised appropriations $79,367M (2025-27) and $81,710M (2027-29), projected ending balance $653M at the end of 2027-29 (FY2028 alone -$802M).

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. The official balanced-budget outlook required since 2012 (SSB 6636), adopted by the bipartisan Forecast Council. Its 2027-29 spending is a maintenance-level projection, not an enacted budget.

  36. Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council Methodology for the April 2026 outlook: lists Chapter 238, Laws of 2026 (ESSB 6346) at -$46,400K in 2025-27 and $2,309,180K in 2027-29 among revenue legislation.

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Washington State government publication. Public document; linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Government. Companion document to the adopted outlook; the outlook's main table folds this line into total revenue legislation.

  37. Washington Research Council (Emily Makings) Summary of the September 2026 ERFC forecast giving income-tax revenue of $3.503 billion in 2027-29 and $9.435 billion in 2029-31; used for the 2029-31 figure, which the forecast's tables show only within a broader 'Other (including individual income tax)' line of $9,550.9M.

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Copyrighted web page. Linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Advocacy group. Business-funded nonpartisan research organization that has criticized state spending growth. The figures used here restate the official ERFC forecast.

  38. Washington Research Council (Emily Makings) Updated estimate of the NGF-O ending balance: about -$234 million at the end of 2025-27 and -$924 million at the end of 2027-29, excluding what the author calls dubious accounting assumptions; holding 2027-29 appropriations growth to 3.0% closes the gap.

    Retrieved October 21, 2026. Copyrighted web page. Linked, not redistributed.

    Reliability: Advocacy group. Analyst estimate, not an official outlook. The post does not say explicitly whether its 2027-29 balance includes income-tax revenue; this dataset assumes it does, as an update of the outlook that counts it.

Limitations and reproducibility

Reproducible from public sources: Every input figure is written into build.js with the LBN edition and table it came from; node build.js regenerates every table and saved-analysis result. LBN tables were read from text extracts of the PDFs; readers can check each value against the cited page.

  • Appropriations are authority to spend, not actual expenditures; some appropriations lapse unspent each biennium.
  • The Near General Fund basket changed over time (2009 account merges into GF-S; NGF-P from 2013; NGF-O adds the Workforce Education Investment Account from 2019-21). Part of the measured growth is accounts moving into the basket rather than new spending; the 2019 LBN projected WEIA revenue at $773.3M for 2019-21, about 1.5% of the 2019-21 NGF-O total, so the basket change explains only a small part of the growth.
  • Values are nominal; inflation adjustments use consumer prices (CPI-U), which may not match the cost of what government buys (wages, health care).
  • 2021-23 is inflated by one-time items (about $7.6B in Special Appropriations, including transfers to the Washington Rescue Plan Transition Account).
  • 2025-27 is in progress and its figure reflects appropriations through the 2026 supplemental only.
  • Benchmarks are pegged to each biennium's middle year, an approximation of fiscal-year timing.
  • Revenue counterfactuals are static estimates and several tax-legislation rows scale first-biennium scores (see table tax-legislation confidence).
  • Cross-state comparisons (NASBO) use each state's own general fund definition and are nominal.
  • Program-group mappings were read from text extracts of LBN tables and checked against published totals; a few rows (noted) could not be split further.

Publications using this dataset

Version details

The exact citing versions, and the version of this dataset each cites.

  • Article wa-budget-doubled-decade — version 7 (published) cites version 2
  • Article wa-budget-doubled-decade — version 6 (published) cites version 2
  • Article wa-budget-doubled-decade — version 5 (published) cites version 2
  • Article wa-budget-doubled-decade — version 4 (published) cites version 2
  • Article wa-budget-doubled-decade — version 3 (published) cites version 2
  • Article wa-spending-growth-vs-millionaires-tax — version 6 (published) cites version 5
  • Chart wa-outlook-2027-29-without-millionaires-tax — version 3 (published) cites version 5
  • Chart wa-spending-excess-vs-millionaires-tax — version 3 (published) cites version 5
  • Chart wa-ngf-above-benchmark-by-area — version 1 (published) cites version 2
  • Chart wa-general-fund-growth-index — version 3 (published) cites version 2
  • Chart wa-ngf-spending-minus-revenue — version 1 (published) cites version 2
  • Briefing wa-i-645 — version 6 (published) cites version 5
  • Briefing wa-i-645 — version 4 (published) cites version 5